The latest Environmental Protection Agency report on Ireland greenhouse gas emission projections, forecasts the State will exceed its obligations in 2019.
Ireland’s 2020 target is to achieve a 20% reduction of non-Emission Trading Scheme (non-ETS) sector emissions (i.e. agriculture, transport, the built environment, waste and non-energy intensive industry) on 2005 levels with annual limits set for each year over the period 2013-2020. The EPA has produced two scenarios in preparing greenhouse gas emission projections; a With Existing Measures scenario and a With Additional Measures scenario.
For 2020 it is estimated that non-ETS sector emissions are projected to be 4% -6% below 2005 levels by 2020. This compares to the target of 20% below 2005 levels by 2020.
Under the With Existing Measures scenario, Ireland is projected to cumulatively exceed its obligations by 13.7Mt of CO2 eq over the period 2013-2020. Under the With Additional Measures scenario, Ireland is projected to cumulatively exceed its obligations by 11.5Mt of CO2 eq over the period 2013-2020.
Agriculture and transport dominate non-ETS sector emissions; emission trends from these sectors will be key determinants in terms of meeting targets with both projected to increase in the period to 2020.
There will be new obligations (as yet undefined) for the years 2021-2030. Based on current emission projections, it is estimated that by 2030 total non-ETS emissions will be 1%-3% below 2005 levels. The estimates of greenhouse gas emissions to 2035 assume a continuation of the effect of policies and measures that are in place in 2020.
The full EPA report can be downloaded here